Risk assessment through multivariate analysis on the magnitude and occurrence date of daily storm events in the Shenzhen bay area     

Jing-Cheng Han  Yang Zhou  Yuefei Huang  Xiaofeng Wu  Zhe Liu  Yongqiang Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(5):669-689

Multivariate storm frequency modeling would help to gain improved understanding of complex storm process, and provide useful information for regulating flooding risk. In this paper, the dependency...  相似文献   

晋西北地区表层土壤粒度与地球化学元素组成   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李继彦  周玲  刘益  张倩  蔡莹莹  张宝贵 《中国沙漠》2019,39(5):155-162

对晋西北地区表层土壤的物质组成进行研究，可以明确其物质来源、沉积环境及化学风化特征。选择区内表层土壤（深度0、10、20 cm）及其附近的河流沉积物，进行粒度和化学元素组成测试。结果表明：（1）晋西北地区表层土壤粒度组成以黏土和粉沙为主，且有自地表向下粗颗粒组分含量增加的趋势。（2）常量化学元素组成以SiO₂、Al₂O₃、CaO、Fe₂O₃为主，其余元素含量均较低。化学元素组成模式表明研究区内表层土壤物质与黄土高原腹地黄土有相同的物质源区，黄河河流沉积物对其贡献不大。（3）晋西北表层土壤的CIA值为52.70~57.89，平均54.06，说明它们的化学风化程度较低，处于早期的脱Na、Ca阶段。这是由于研究区地理位置比洛川更靠北，气温和降水量均低于洛川，降水量与兰州相差不大，但是年平均气温和年温差比兰州低。该研究明确了晋西北地区表层土壤的物质组成特征，为区域潜在沙漠化危害防治提供了数据支撑。  相似文献   

基于STIRPAT模型的内蒙古沙漠化地区环境压力分析     

樊胜岳  刘文文  周宁 《中国沙漠》2019,39(3):117-125

实现经济与生态环境的协调发展，已经成为当前治理沙漠化的巨大挑战。如何定量分析人类活动和自然条件对环境的影响，是当前环境经济学界研究的热点问题。以内蒙古自治区71个沙漠化县为研究对象，以1986—2010年为研究区间做面板空间计量实证分析。选取了人口、富裕度、技术水平、风速和降水作为环境基础指标构建STIRPAT模型，从环境压力内在驱动角度定量分析不同的自然因素和人为因素对沙漠化地区环境的综合影响。结果表明：在观测数据范围内，富裕度、技术水平、风速和降水是内蒙古自治区环境压力的主要驱动因素；富裕度每增加1%，环境压力显著增加0.096%；技术水平每变化1%，将引起环境压力相应发生0.084%的变化；风速和降水每变动1%分别使得沙漠地区环境压力显著地增加0.640%和减少0.216%。  相似文献   

Interactive Effects of Ultraviolet Radiation and Dissolved Organic Carbon on Phytoplankton Growth and Photosynthesis in Sanya Bay,Northern South China Sea     

Liao  Jianzu  Xu  Jie  Yuan  Xiangcheng  Liang  Yuxian  Guo  Yajuan  Zhou  Weihua  Huang  Hui  Liu  Sheng  Long  Aimin 《Ocean Science Journal》2019,54(4):581-593

Ocean Science Journal - The effects of a simulated climate change scenario, i.e., increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), on the growth and photosynthesis of...  相似文献   

中国物理海洋学研究70年:发展历程、学术成就概览   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

魏泽勋  郑全安  杨永增  刘克修  徐腾飞  王凡  胡石建  谢玲玲  李元龙  杜岩  周磊  林霄沛  胡建宇  朱建荣  李均益  张正光  侯一筠  刘泽  田纪伟  黄晓冬  管玉平  刘志宇  杨庆轩  赵玮  宋振亚  刘海龙  董昌明  于卫东  连涛  陈朝晖  史久新  雷瑞波  刘煜  于福江  尹宝树  陈戈  王岩峰  李整林  熊学军  汪嘉宁  李晓峰  王永刚 《海洋学报》2019,41(10):23-64

本文概略评述新中国成立70年来物理海洋学各分支研究领域的发展历程和若干学术成就。中国物理海洋学研究起步于海浪、潮汐、近海环流与水团，以及以风暴潮为主的海洋气象灾害的研究。随着国力的增强，研究领域不断拓展，涌现了大量具有广泛影响力的研究成果，其中包括:提出了被国际广泛采用的“普遍风浪谱”和“涌浪谱”，发展了第三代海浪数值模式；提出了“准调和分析方法”和“潮汐潮流永久预报”等潮汐潮流的分析和预报方法；发现并命名了“棉兰老潜流”，揭示了东海黑潮的多核结构及其多尺度变异机理等，系统描述了太平洋西边界流系；提出了印度尼西亚贯穿流的南海分支(或称南海贯穿流)；不断完善了中国近海陆架环流系统，在南海环流、黑潮及其分支、台湾暖流、闽浙沿岸流、黄海冷水团环流、黄海暖流、渤海环流，以及陆架波方面均取得了深刻的认识；从大气桥和海洋桥两个方面对太平洋–印度洋–大西洋洋际相互作用进行了系统的总结；发展了浅海水团的研究方法，基本摸清了中国近海水团的分布和消长特征与机制，在大洋和极地水团分布及运动研究方面也做出了重要贡献；阐明了南海中尺度涡的宏观特征和生成机制，揭示了中尺度涡的三维结构，定量评估了其全球物质与能量输运能力；基本摸清了中国近海海洋锋的空间分布和季节变化特征，提出了地形、正压不稳定和斜压不稳定等锋面动力学机制；构建了“南海内波潜标观测网”，实现了对内波生成–演变–消亡全过程机理的系统认识；发展了湍流的剪切不稳定理论，提出了海流“边缘不稳定”的概念，开发了海洋湍流模式，提出了湍流混合参数化的新方法等；在海洋内部混合机制和能量来源方面取得了新的认识，并阐述了混合对海洋深层环流、营养物质输运等过程的影响；研发了全球浪–潮–流耦合模式，推出一系列海洋与气候模式；发展了可同化主要海洋观测数据的海洋数据同化系统和用于ENSO预报的耦合同化系统；建立了达到国际水准的非地转(水槽/水池)和地转(旋转平台)物理模 型实验平台；发展了ENSO预报的误差分析方法，建立了海洋和气候系统年代际变化的理论体系，揭示了中深层海洋对全球气候变化的响应；初步建成了中国近海海洋观测网；持续开展南北极调查研究；建立了台风、风暴潮、巨浪和海啸的业务化预报系统，为中国气象减灾提供保障；突破了国外的海洋技术封锁，研发了万米水深的深水水听器和海洋光学特性系列测量仪器；建立了溢油、危险化学品漂移扩散等预测模型，为伴随海洋资源开发所带来的风险事故的应急处理和预警预报提供科学支撑。文中引用的大量学术成果文献(每位第一作者优选不超过3篇)显示，经过70年的发展，中国物理海洋学研究培养了一支实力雄厚的科研队伍，这是最宝贵的成果。这支队伍必将成为中国物理海洋学研究攀登新高峰的主力军。  相似文献   

北极冰下声传播特性实验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

翁晋宝  杨燕明  文洪涛  周鸿涛 《海洋学报》2019,41(3):76-85

通过2017年8月6日在北极海域开展的一次声传播实验，开展了冰下声传播特性实验研究。结合Burke-Twersky （BT）散射模型与射线模型，分析了冰下声传播的多途到达结构，研究了接收声强变化规律，解释了接收声强在30 min内衰减20 dB的现象，分析了接收信号的时间相关性，探讨了接收信号相关性较低的原因。实验结果表明，表面接收信号主要由小角度多次反转反射声线、一次海底反射声线和二次海底反射声线依次构成，表面声道到达信号显著强于海底反射信号。试验冰站在试验期间的运动导致了声传播信号强度和相关性的迅速衰减，并通过仿真得到了验证。  相似文献   

A high-precision time–frequency analysis for thin hydrocarbon reservoir identification based on synchroextracting generalized S-transform     

Ying Hu  Hui Chen  Hongyan Qian  Xinyue Zhou  Yuanjun Wang  Bin Lyu 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(3):941-954

Improving the seismic time–frequency resolution is a crucial step for identifying thin reservoirs. In this paper, we propose a new high-precision time–frequency analysis algorithm, synchroextracting generalized S-transform, which exhibits superior performance at characterizing reservoirs and detecting hydrocarbons. This method first calculates time–frequency spectra using generalized S-transform; then, it squeezes all but the most smeared time–frequency coefficients into the instantaneous frequency trajectory and finally obtains highly accurate and energy-concentrated time–frequency spectra. We precisely deduce the mathematical formula of the synchroextracting generalized S-transform. Synthetic signal examples testify that this method can correctly decompose a signal and provide a better time–frequency representation. The results of a synthetic seismic signal and real seismic data demonstrate that this method can identify some reservoirs with thincknesses smaller than a quarter wavelength and can be successfully applied for hydrocarbon detection. In addition, examples of synthetic signals with different levels of Gaussian white noise show that this method can achieve better results under noisy conditions. Hence, the synchroextracting generalized S-transform has great application prospects and merits in seismic signal processing and interpretation.  相似文献   

The role of salinity in fluvio-deltaic morphodynamics: A long-term modelling study     

Zeng Zhou  Luying Chen  Jianfeng Tao  Zheng Gong  Leicheng Guo  Mick van der Wegen  Ian Townend  Changkuan Zhang 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(3):590-604

Salinity difference between terrestrial river discharge and oceanic tidal water plays a role in modifying the local flow field and, as a consequence, estuarine morphodynamics. Although widely recognized, recent numerical studies exploring the long-term morphological evolution of river-influenced estuaries with two-dimensional, depth-averaged models have mostly neglected salinity. Using a three-dimensional morphodynamic model, we aim to gain more insight into the effect of salinity on the morphodynamics of fluvio-deltaic systems. Model results indicate that the resultant estuarine morphology established after 600 years differs remarkably when a salinity gradient is included. A fan-shaped river-mouth delta exhibits less seaward expansion and is cut through by narrower channels when salinity is included. The inclusion of salinity tends to generate estuarine circulation, which favours landward sediment transport and hence limits the growth of the delta while enhancing the development of intertidal areas. The formation of deltaic channel–shoal patterns resulting from morphodynamic evolution tends to strengthen salinity stratification, which is characterized by an increased gradient Richardson number. The direction of the depth-averaged residual sediment transport over a tide may be opposite to the direction of residual velocity, indicating the significant influence of baroclinic effects on the net sediment transport direction (and hence morphological change). The effect of salinity on morphological evolution becomes less profound when the strength of tidal or fluvial forcing is dominant over the other. The effects of sediment type and flocculation, which are particularly important when salinity gradients are present, are also discussed. Overall, this study highlights that neglecting salinity to simulate long-term estuarine morphodynamics requires more careful justification, particularly when the environment is characterized by fine sediment types (favouring suspended transport), and relatively large river discharge and estuarine depth (favouring baroclinic effects). © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stormflow threshold behaviour in a subtropical mountainous headwater catchment during forest recovery period     

Lezhang Wei  Zhijun Qiu  Guangyi Zhou  Tsuyoshi Kinouchi  Yu Liu 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1728-1740

Forest ecohydrological feedbacks complicate the threshold behaviour of stormflow response to precipitation or wetting conditions on a long-term scale (e.g. several years). In this study, the threshold behaviours in an evergreen-deciduous mixed forested headwater catchment in southern China were examined during 2009–2015, when damaged vegetation was recovering after the great 2008 Chinese ice and snowstorm. The non-uniqueness of the thresholds and the slow and rapid responses of stormflow at the outlet of the catchment in different hydro-climate datasets with different maximum values of gross precipitation (P) and sums of precipitation and antecedent soil moisture index (P + ASI) were assessed. The thresholds of P and P + ASI required to trigger stormflows (i.e. ‘generation thresholds’) and the transition from slow to rapid responses of stormflow (i.e. ‘rise thresholds’) were compared both seasonally and annually. The results indicated significant differences in the analysed datasets, highlighting the need to compare thresholds with care to avoid misinterpretation. Seasonal variations in threshold behaviours in the catchment suggested that vegetation canopy interception contributed to higher rise thresholds, and wetter conditions resulted in higher runoff sensitivity to precipitation during the growing and rainy seasons. Furthermore, the generation thresholds were higher in the dormant season, possibly due to drier soil moisture conditions in the near-channel areas. During the vegetation recovery period, the annual generation thresholds increased, however the rise thresholds did not exhibit a similar trend. The rapid stormflow response above the threshold decreased, possibly due to transpiration and interception of the recovered vegetation. However, the slow stormflow response to small rainfall events below the thresholds was higher in wetter years but lower in drier years, suggesting that the total water input dominated the stormflow response during small rainfall events. In conclusion, the seasonal and annual variations in threshold behaviours highlight that vegetation recovery and hydro-climatic conditions had a notable impact on the stormflow response.  相似文献   

北京十三陵地区青白口系长龙山组含铁建造的发育特征及成因^*          下载免费PDF全文

张琴  王柏寒  周琛  孙祖宇  梅啸寒  原成帅  王凯 《古地理学报》2020,22(3):570-586

含铁建造在整个前寒武纪的地质记录中分布广泛,但针对华北地区青白口系长龙山组出露的含铁建造目前还没有报道。文中通过野外观察及室内XRD、SEM、ICP-MS等手段,对北京十三陵地区出露的长龙山组含铁建造的分布规律、矿物组成、成矿物质来源等开展研究,并探讨含铁建造的成因机制。结果表明,含铁建造的铁质主要为赤铁矿,与石英、海绿石等矿物伴生。含铁建造存在2种分布模式: Ⅰ型含铁建造,与海绿石伴生,产出厚度变化大(1~50 cm),偏光显微镜下海绿石砂岩和铁质条带呈互层状产出,赤铁矿具近球形结构;Ⅱ型含铁建造,无海绿石伴生,产出厚度相对较大(一般大于10 cm),镜下见黑色的富铁层夹碎屑石英透镜体,赤铁矿常发育针状或雪花状结构。依据构造演化和微量元素分析,认为含铁建造的铁质来源主要为下马岭组顶部的铁质风化壳。Ⅰ型含铁建造为化学胶体沉淀与海绿石风化的混合成因;Ⅱ型含铁建造主要属于胶体化学沉积成因,后期可能经受了糜棱化改造作用。这一结论为华北地区前寒武纪含铁建造的找矿提供了沉积地质依据,对于完善含铁建造成矿机理及华北地区元古代构造演化具有重要的意义。  相似文献